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Should Greece be bailed out?
Here is my post on the BBC news site's forum under that heading:
"Greece should not be bailed out.Best thing that could happen to Greece is go bankrupt, starve, have a revolution, redefine its identity as a nation, get back on its feet and start making its own new history instead of trying to convince themselves and the world that they somehow deserve to be Europeans and treated as such when the current modern Greek nation is nothing but a badly materialized fantasy of the enlightenment period.They will be bailed out though because they're excellent consumers."
I don't think it will be posted just like all my previous posts on many subjects have not been posted. Then again, news organizations only report things under their own prism of perspective and interests which is why reporters should be abolished; they are to news and information what priests are to God: unnecessary, distorting, self-serving mediators. Hurray for the Internet, blogging and personal reporting!




I read some stuff (in the
I read some stuff (in the Olympic airways in flight magazine of all places) about an African (Zambian) lady who advocates that all western aid to Africa except education should be withdrawn because it stops Africa from sorting out its own problems. Perhaps that also applies to Greece, but I don't relish being around in Greece in the while they sort the problems out the hard way.
perhaps it won't be so bad...
...to have money in Greece when most others don't. At the very least you'll be getting huge discounts off starved store owners and you may even get to see the first ever vegetarian Greek easter with Greeks grazing grass, up on the Cretan mountains, like sheep
Yeah - as long as the social
Yeah - as long as the social unrest doesn't get too bad.
Athens
It's all going to go down in Athens my friend. Just stay away from the capital and get a gun just in case the Greeks decide it is all to be blamed on the British.
Betrüger in der
Betrüger in der Euro-familie.(Swindlers in the European Family)
Greece should be expelled from the Euro and default by their own. Hell, Greece is not even Europe to be fair.
hmmm, right...
The problem is we are still not quite sure what Europe is. You seem to be clear about it though, so why don't you enlighten us? By the way, I do agree that Greece should be expelled and default on their own.
Oh, regarding the swindlers bit who are you referring to? Cause, really amigo, Germans cannot afford to generalize if you catch my drift. That is if you are even German...
Europe should be a land of
Europe should be a land of hard working and honest people, something that Greece with it´s crooked books dont understand. That´s to say: Greece is closer to Africa than Europe.
The worst of all is that Greece ask the help of it´s "European peers", the same peers that Greece so shamefully deceive. Greece would probably feel a lot more confortable in the mess that is Africa where they wouldnt be supposed to work.
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As for your drift, it´s time for Germany to become a regular country, we do not have and nor we will continue to sustain unfit countries.
Right...
Well, according to your definition Japan should be part of the European Union. They probably have an even larger percentage of honest and hard working people than Germany.
If you wish to include the geographic criterion to your definition then, together with Greece, you would certainly have to expell Italy, Spain and Portugal as they are not so different in corruption terms and the only reason they are currently in a slightly better position is their accumulated wealth of over 500 years of piracy in South America, Africa, Asia and even parts of Europe. Oh, wait, this would mean you would also have to get rid of France and the UK, maybe Holland as well.
And there you have it, Germany would once more stand on its own as a self-proclaimed sole representative of honesty, hard work and European spirit. I thought we had a war over that didn't we? A war during which "honest" and "hard working" Germans, just 60 years ago, acted like common thieves stealing the Greek "Africans" of their gold, money and even ancient artifacts that were made at a time when Germans were food-gatherers in European forests (and would remain so for another 1,000 years). I am not even going to get into the gory details of the countless executions during German occupation or the fact that when they left 85% of the Greek children suffered from tuberculosis, almost all livestock had disappeared while all of our infrastructure and military fortifications that were strong enough to hold back the might of Italy laid in ruins.
Today, Germans are so honest that their huge multinational companies like Siemens and MAN have special departments that manage global bribing. Oh, wait, doesn't that mean that you would have to expell Germany as well?
Perhaps then your definition of Europe is something closer to "countries who are currently rich, regardless". This kind of Europe no honest person would want to be part of, so you would have to expell yourself.
Greece has a GDP of 267bn
Greece has a GDP of 267bn Euro. Debt is on the order of 300bn Euro.
Imports in 2009 were down to about 60bn Euro, from 90 bn Euro in 2008. Exports fell from a record 30 bn to 20 bn Euro in the same time frame. Debt service alone amounts to about 20 bn Euro. Healthcare, military and education expenditure amount to about 20% of GDP, over 50 billion Euro. The other 50 billion Euros would include pensions and salaries for civil servants.
You may argue that military expenditure could be cut in half, which amounts to savings of 2% GDP or 5 bn Euro. It is generally unwise to cut healthcare or education. Of the remainder, even without having detailed information, you cannot reasonably expect to cut more than a third or about 15bn Euro. Any country needs civil servants and needs to pay them. Pensions are an income that people relied on and cannot be arbitrarily cut, because there are no provisions to replace them. Let's say the government could cut spending by 20 billion Euro.
Any cuts in government expenditure will have an impact on the economy as a whole and thus on the base of taxpayers. Increases in taxes - as proposed - will exacerbate this impact. It would be foolish to expect tax increases to increase government income by the same factor that taxes were raised.
You must keep in mind, that those are not ordinary tax levies. None of the money raised will find its way back into the Greek economy (at least not for the next two decades or so, and even then it will come in the form of a trickle, not as the deluge it was when it left). If you thought that paying more taxes to finance pensions was bad for the economy, then you should realize that paying more taxes to pay interest rates to foreign banks is a whole lot worse, because this money is *really* gone for good.
Let us assume that despite the weaker economy and despite the fully justified outrage by pensioners, Greece will manage to increase its income by another 20 billion Euro.
This may be enough to even out the budget, but not to repay any of the debt. Worse. In terms of GDP, Greece's debt burden will increase. No matter how optimistic you are, taking 40bn Euro out of the Greek economy will reduce GDP by 20-30bn Euro or about 10%. Even though the debt didn't increase by a single cent, the debt burden would increase from 120% of GDP to more than 130% of GDP.
In a few words: Greece is history...
sure
I don't know what "Greece is history" actually means but I basically agree with the description of the situation and I also believe that Greece should have not tried to enter the Euro before its inherrent economic problems were addressed.
the debts that Greece will
the debts that Greece will continue to rack up will be too great for its feeble economy to bear. Earlier analysis by The Economist suggested that Greek government debt would rise to 149% of GDP by 2014 even if its deficit reduction went well. It assumes that Greece could sustain a brutal reduction in its primary budget deficit (ie, excluding interest costs) of 12 percentage points. Even that relied on an interest rate of 5%, roughly what euro-zone partners have agreed they will levy on Greece, on all new borrowing and on maturing debt. If interest costs are much higher, the government will have to find extra savings elsewhere. The deep cuts will only prolong Greece’s recession. Wages will have to fall if the country is to regain the cost competitiveness needed for a recovery. Both influences will push down nominal GDP for a while and make crisis management all the more difficult.
The scale of the task and the bungling of the rescue make the bond market’s capitulation seem natural. Greece needs so much money that the only thing standing between the country and default is open-ended funding from the IMF and the rest of the euro area. The €45 billion fund announced on April 11th would be enough to cover Greece’s budget deficit and repay its maturing debts (including the €8.5 billion that falls due on May 19th) for the rest of 2010. But Greece may need as much again in 2011 and still more thereafter. In an average year, Greece has to refinance around €40 billion of its debt (this year, would you believe, is a mercifully light one for redemptions). Add to that the €70 billion or so of fresh borrowing that may be needed to cover Greece’s cumulative budget deficits until 2014 and the scale of a credible rescue fund becomes clear.
Yet Greece’s would-be rescuers may feel they have little choice but to press on with the bail-out. A default that would cut the value of Greek public debt by a half or more would cripple the country’s banks. (S&P has also downgraded four of them to junk status.) It would also spark a wider financial panic in Europe. Around €213 billion-worth of Greek government bonds are held abroad. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimates that foreign banks’ lending to Greece’s government, banks and private sector was €164 billion at the end of last year. How much of this is public debt is unclear. But if half of the foreign holdings of government bonds are held by banks, and if each country’s banks owns those bonds in proportion to their total holdings of Greek assets, then perhaps €76 billion is held by euro-zone banks.
Euro-zone countries might be tempted to let Greece default, force non-bank investors to take a hit, and use the funds earmarked to rescue Greece to fortify their banks instead. That would cost perhaps €53 billion if, as S&P fears, a restructuring of Greek debt resulted in losses of as much as 70%. That may look small next to a rescue fund. But if Greece defaulted it would still rely on its EU partners to fund its budget deficit, which will take time to shrink from the 13.6% of GDP it reached last year. It seems there are no longer any options for Greece that will not cost its partners a lot.
And that´s what we get when we deal with swindlers.
you should continue your analysis
you should continue your analysis by looking into how much money has come into Germany over the years from Greeks buying German products more than ever because of the EU and from German corporations expanding like crazy all over Greece (e.g. Praktiker). So basicaly the Greeks are paying you back the money you give them in order to buy your products and then they also pay (or at least try to) this money back once more because as you know this money is not a gift but rather a loan; in fact a loan with relatively high interest. Of course in order to maximize the benefit as described German companies have a policy of bribing in order to get the most and the best jobs at very high prices. Swindlers you said? I say suckers.
What, you thought all these Germans who made and make these Greek support decisions are fools? Why do you think Italy doesn't say anything? Come and see the kind of hold Italian products have in the Greek market.
Yes. It´s true that the Euro
Yes. It´s true that the Euro gave a huge boost for Germans, Italian and so on... exports to Greece but this was a forseeable future nevertheless the Euro also brought positive features for Greece.
In order to become a Euro partner, Greece knew that substantial reforms needed to be in place but instead they´ve chosen to deceive all of us. (The politicians got their votes and the people continued to live on their slow paced life)
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As to Greece not being Europe, i was out of place and for that i apologize nonetheless we still need to see if, the once great greeks, will regain their lost pride, get their house in order and start to contribute with the European project.
So far instead of working, Greeks seem to protesting, i can say it for sure that had Germany been in such an unholy position we would double our efforts. It´s beyond me how come Greeks seem to take no pride in taking care of themselves.
the revolution
Apology accepted - lord knows Germany has suffered a lot because of its own mistakes. Believe me I have suffered and felt ashamed all my life because of the facts you mention. There are others like me. Let me tell you - when in the coming days you see the street fights - not those against the economic measures but those demanding justice (forcing the countless crooks in power into jail) I will be one of these dudes risking their lives for a proud tomorrow. If we accomplish nothing I promise you I will change my citizenship and my name and never set foot on this country except as a tourist.
Anyway, indidually there´re
Anyway, indidually there´re swindlers and there are not swindlers, and this go every country but the Greek government has obviously deceived it´s partners and the least we can expect from partners is honesty.
I acknowledge that every generalization or bias (Remember, this goes to all) falls short that´s to say, obviously most Greeks are honest.
fighting
yeah, we are fighting to keep the "most" into the sentence...
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